Weekly Insights for Dubai Property Investors: October 18, 2025

As we close out the week ending October 18, I see the UAE’s real estate market continuing to build on the strong undercurrents of recent weeks. On one hand, we have the headline-grabbing milestone: the market has recorded Dh525.87 billion in sales through the first 290 days of 2025 — surpassing the full year of 2024 and reinforcing that momentum is very much alive. On the other hand, global volatility remains real (tariff threats, oil heading towards $50 per barrel, gold surging well past $4,000) — a reminder that even strong markets must be approached with clarity and discernment.

In this edition of Weekly Insights for Dubai Property Investors, I walk you through how these contrasting forces — robust domestic trends, external headwinds — interact. I share how the UAE’s non-oil economy, now roughly 77.3% of GDP, is offering an important buffer, yet why the ripple effects of global trade and energy shifts deserve attention. And I focus on where I believe the best opportunities lie right now: value-oriented assets, commercial diversification, and measured plays in neighbouring markets like Abu Dhabi.

Market Milestone: Dh525.87 Billion Sales and What It Really Means

That headline figure — Dh525.87 billion in sales year-to-date — is not just a record; it’s a barometer of confidence. It tells us demand remains broad-based and resilient, even as global conditions fluctuate. It signals depth — a market driven less by speculation and more by liquidity, end-user activity, and structural inflows.

Drilling into the numbers, residential property still accounts for about 87% of all deals, reflecting the enduring appeal of Dubai’s lifestyle-anchored communities. Off-plan continues to dominate at roughly 70%, showing investors are looking further ahead, positioning for handovers between 2028 and 2030.

The most active corridors — Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai Hills Estate, and Business Bay — demonstrate how mid-luxury and central-urban submarkets are now absorbing capital once concentrated in prime waterfront zones.

For investors, this mix has several implications. First, transaction volume alone no longer guarantees performance — capital is moving faster, but unevenly. Second, resale markets are quietly re-pricing, particularly where early investors are taking profit, creating pockets of opportunity. And third, rental growth is decelerating, meaning yield-focused investors should be selective about entry price and payment structure.

The key insight is that Dubai’s surge in activity reflects confidence, not complacency. It’s a healthy market expanding on genuine fundamentals — population growth, trade, and infrastructure — but one where discipline matters. Choosing the right project, phase, and timing now defines long-term returns far more than it did two years ago.

If you’re evaluating your next move in residential or commercial real-estate, let’s connect now for a tailored review of top opportunities.

Trade and Economic Tailwinds Fueling Real-Estate Demand

One of the clearest and most consequential shifts I’m tracking right now is the sustained surge in non-oil trade. The UAE’s trade with G20 economies reached roughly $231 billion in the first half of 2025, up nearly 19% year-on-year, while total non-oil foreign trade climbed to Dh 1.7 trillion, a 24% increase. That’s not a short-term spike — it’s the result of logistics investment, customs digitalisation, and a wave of bilateral trade agreements now filtering through the economy.

For real estate, these numbers are not abstract. Every new trade corridor or re-export hub translates into physical demand for space — warehouses near Jebel Ali, grade-A offices for trading and tech firms, and mixed-use zones serving a workforce that continues to expand around logistics clusters. In other words, economic diversification is no longer a policy slogan; it’s showing up in leasing data and development pipelines.

The IMF’s upgraded GDP forecast of 4.8% for 2025 confirms this momentum, reflecting an economy that’s not only growing but doing so on a broader base. Energy remains an anchor, but trade, tourism, manufacturing, and finance are increasingly driving the cycle — each with its own real-estate footprint.

For investors, this means you’re not simply buying exposure to Dubai’s luxury or off-plan story; you’re participating in a deeper structural transformation. When trade expands and capital inflows diversify, demand for well-located, income-producing assets strengthens across every segment — from logistics hubs to mid-market housing. It’s this linkage between diversification and durability that continues to set the UAE apart as a long-term property market.

Structural Signals, Selectivity and Risk Awareness

While Dubai’s fundamentals remain exceptionally strong, I continue to stress that this is not the moment for broad-brush investing. The market has matured — and with maturity comes differentiation. The recent commentary from analysts, including the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index placing Dubai in the “elevated risk” category, shouldn’t trigger alarm, but it should sharpen focus. It’s not predicting a correction; it’s acknowledging the speed and concentration of capital inflows over the past two years.

What this really tells us is that the market is entering a new phase — one where selectivity, pricing discipline, and asset quality matter more than sheer participation. Some submarkets are still delivering double-digit returns; others have already priced in two years of future growth.

Oversupply risk isn’t systemic, but it is localised. Add to that the potential for external headwinds — slower global growth, higher construction costs, or delayed project completions — and the case for precision becomes even stronger.

My framework remains consistent:

• Target below-market distress resale or cancellation units where the spread between the exit price and current pricing still offers upside.

• Lean into undersupplied commercial real estate, especially in Grade A office and mixed-use developments, where rental growth continues to outpace new supply, which is currently at record low levels.

• Diversify into Abu Dhabi, where development remains measured and the price curve flatter, offering yield stability and less volatility over the medium term.

In short, this is a market to approach with data, not emotion. The opportunity is real — but so is the need for discernment. Focus on value, resilience, and timing, and you’ll stay positioned ahead of the next cycle rather than chasing its momentum.

Sector Shifts: Commercial, Logistics & Beyond

One theme I continue to emphasise is the quiet strength of Dubai’s commercial and logistics markets. While residential demand remains solid, these segments are now where early movers can find real value.

Vacancy rates in prime office areas sit around 7–8%, and rents continue to climb — driven by expanding tech, fintech, and logistics occupiers under new CEPA trade corridors. Yet, new supply remains limited, creating a structural imbalance that supports further rental growth.

For investors, this is the moment to diversify into commercial or mixed-use assets before institutional capital fully re-prices the segment. The fundamentals — low vacancy, rising rents, and expanding trade demand — point to sustained upside.

If you’re reviewing your portfolio, now is a good time to consider adding a commercial or hybrid property while much of the market remains focused solely on residential.

Explore current listings and insights at Mitchell’s Commercial Realty and see why many investors are quietly shifting focus toward Dubai’s next wave of commercial opportunities.

Talent, Migration & Lifestyle Buckets

It’s not just macroeconomics driving the market — migration and lifestyle trends are equally powerful. Professionals from high-tax regions such as the UK and EU continue to relocate to the UAE, drawn by zero capital gains tax, long-term residency options, and a business-friendly ecosystem. This steady inflow isn’t speculative; it’s structural, and it reinforces end-user demand across both the ownership and rental markets.

What’s notable now is the broadening of the demand base. It’s no longer limited to ultra-wealthy investors chasing trophy assets — it’s increasingly about globally mobile professionals seeking quality, well-located housing tied to lifestyle and convenience.

In Abu Dhabi, areas like Saadiyat Island and Hudariyat Island capture this balance perfectly — offering cultural landmarks, world-class museums, and beachfront living within a stable, regulated market. Together, these migration and lifestyle shifts are helping underpin sustainable demand — not just for luxury, but for livable, high-quality communities that appeal to long-term residents as much as investors.

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Building on the record-breaking success of the original Lumena — which achieved AED 3.4 billion in sales, the highest ever for a commercial project in the district — Lumena Alta sets a new benchmark for premium office space in Dubai.

Rising more prominently on Sheikh Zayed Road, the tower combines Grade-A offices with ultra-luxury hospitality and wellness-oriented design, reflecting the global shift toward experience-led workplaces. Its location offers direct access to Downtown Dubai and the Dubai Canal, positioning it squarely within the city’s most in-demand corporate corridor.

The project arrives at a time when prime office supply remains severely undersupplied, with vacancy below 8% and rents up double digits year-on-year. This imbalance, coupled with Dubai’s continued economic diversification, gives Lumena Alta a uniquely strong investment profile.

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Conclusion:

This week’s record-breaking sales, expanding trade flows, and forward-looking policy moves all point to one conclusion: Dubai’s property market remains structurally strong, even as global volatility lingers in the background.

Tariff pressures and commodity swings may create short-term noise, but the underlying fundamentals remain solid — diversification, infrastructure investment, and sustained demand continue to underpin long-term growth. The key for investors now is strategic selectivity: focusing on genuine value, resilient assets, and opportunities that balance growth potential with stability.

If you’d like to explore the market in more depth, I’d be delighted to share my experience and help you shape an investment strategy aligned with your objectives. With the right approach, Dubai continues to offer not just strong returns, but lasting security in a fast-changing global landscape.

📞 No pressure, no sales pitch—just a focused, informed conversation about your investment goals. Let’s talk.

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